9. December 2011

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Contentiously Rambling… – Part 2

So why am I worried?

One way for us to know whether we are on the right track in our education system (especially in science and social sciences areas that involve research) is to look at the amount R&D carried out.

According to world bank, our R&D % of GDP was around 0.63% in 2010 and our own govt expected that it will hovers around that level in 2011, approx 0.7% and by 2015, the figure will reach 1% as mentioned in the 10th Malaysia Plan.

It is no brainer that having a large R&D has always been the most important element in ensuring that a country progress and continue to progress, off course back by “Productive Citizens”. Just look at this table that clearly shows that countries that are having a large proportion of their GDP in R&D are those that are continually moving forward. In fact, the importance of R&D have been highlighted time and time again in our 9th, 8th, 7th etc Malaysia plan….BUT it is still lacking in its implementation (mind you, all of the plans got its own budget that were spent…where the money gone to?).

Then we have our flip flopping education system that suppose to produce students that will propel the country to a higher ground with their ingenuity and innovativeness. Well, in this country, we don’t need to go to the extent of thinking of how to incorporate the practical aspect of learning through using some basic and intermediate science or social science projects in schools, seriously we don’ need to. Why?…because we barely resolved the basic and fundamental of any learning  and teaching platform i.e. the language, which by the way should have been resolved several decades ago.

Then we have the politicising of schools. How often we see political party flags afloat in the schools compound and how often we see some politicians making political motivated speeches in the schools. To make worst, we have teachers who are more occupied in being involved in politics rather than teaching. So probable, these group of teachers can help out the country by jumping from KLCC towers to see how the impact of the fall can have an effect to ones’ body. At least, they will contribute to research and development, and nation building of the country.

When I was young, the quality of teachers were fantastic (early 80′s). Then along the way, we beginning to see SOME questionable quality teachers. It is mind boggling to note also that on one hand we got students that produces immaculate academic results that sometimes pushes to the border of insanity, however, on the other hand, we are seeing fresh graduates that barely knows how to talk.

If we got students that are superb, brilliant and magnificent, why is it that our ranking in the world best universities is not improving, and no recognition in any meaningful way given by any organisation worth mentioning except from Timbuktu.

When I read an article some years ago from the economist, one paragraph captured my attention :-

“Begin with hiring the best. There is no question that, as one South Korean official put it, “the quality of an education system cannot exceed the quality of its teachers.” Studies in Tennessee and Dallas have shown that, if you take pupils of average ability and give them to teachers deemed in the top fifth of the profession, they end up in the top 10% of student performers; if you give them to teachers from the bottom fifth, they end up at the bottom”

Can we associate the above paragraph to part of our education system?

While I am on it, above is another portion of the 10th Malaysia plan on education. Pretty fantastic, isn’t it. RM140 millin for HPS, RM2 billion for Permata etc. So we can expect we will have high quality education system by 2015, if it is not then who will be responsible? Money will be thrown away and there will be no accountability?

We can continually denied the fact that the major root of the problem in our education system is the non-availability of professional people who manage the system without fear or favour. It is full of unwarranted and embarrassing flip flopping due to maybe intervention from politicians (I am being nice here) that are only care for their political survival in expense of the ordinary people.

The major cause of our country’s lacking behind in increasing number of areas such as R&D, education etc, in comparison to our neighbours is simply due to no strong will to do the job i.e. personal interest overidding everything else. If only  relevant authority do their job and  corruption level does not goes up , then we will see the funds and efforts used can be place where it counts most i.e. R&D and proper well planned education system that devoid of any fear and favours. Then the children can have better and exciting classes to go to with hair dryers, ping pong balls, plastic bags etc to experiment, with well qualified teachers and supervisors.

OK , I  have rambled enough……….for now.

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8. December 2011

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Contentiously Rambling…- Part 1

Came across this video recently and other than quite informative and interesting, it also makes me worried.

You see, these science tricks are simple experiment and some of it easy to demonstrate. I am also prettty sure that some of it are being used in many of the western/developed countries’ primary and secondary classes to stir up interest among sudents in research, technology and innovativeness.

Ok, let me try to explain why I am worried after wathcing the video above.

There are many theories in education that studies the best way children or even mature students learned best. One of these theories called constructivism and it  “….argues that humans generate knowledge and meaning from an interaction between their experiences and their ideas”.

Off course there are many other theories with their own relevant research and proves that their theories are better (JUST LIKE ANY OTHER FINANCIAL WIZARDS AND ANALYSTS) . However, according to Howard Gardner, one of the foremost authority in development psychologist (those who study perasaan, citarasa dan pandangan manusia dari kecil ke dewasa), describes eight different kinds of intelligence (one way to explain it, is how we learn best) :

  • Visual: Good with art and design
  • Linguistic: Good with words
  • Logical: Good with numbers and math
  • Bodily: Good at action, movement and sports
  • Musical: Good with music, tone and rhythm
  • Interpersonal: Good at communicating with others
  • Intrapersonal: Good at self-reflection
  • Naturalistic: Good at appreciating the world and nature

Human being can have more than one intelligence characteristic but if we observe above one thing for sure almost all relates to some form of interaction with other human being or other physical items. Meaning, we tends to learn more when we complement our readings with some physical activities like elemenary research, discussing with fellow learners, drawing it on a piece of paper etc. In fact a paper from International Academy of Education, states that it is more effective if students learn“….to connect the school to real-life situations, and to focus on understanding and thinking rather than on memorization, drill and practice.” In fact there are many other findings that have the same conclusion.

So, back to the reason why I am worried. Tommorow then…

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6. December 2011

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Risk, return, cost and time

It is a known fact that to invest we need to consider some variables as stated in the heading of this post.

Risk is related to our acceptance of possible lost that we might incurred if we take some projects or investment decisions. However, this risk is closely related to the potential return that we might get. Thus, the statement of high risk high return comes into the picture. Can you get a return without having an iota of risk. Nope!. The minimum issue of risk is default, i.e. the probability someone or an organisation/entity on not delivering what they promised. The case of Latin American Debt Crisis come into mind of how even countries can go against what they promised, then what about profit oriented organisations.

Off course, I am not saying that the current debt crisis has any resemblence to those that happened in Latin American Countries but what I am saying is risk is something that you can’t avoid in totality.

You can reduce the risk and thus the return will be lower than what other investment platform will gives (return) or take (loss).

Ok, lets take EPF returns. On average they have been giving 5.5% return for the past 10 years. Off course that return if we take into account the inflationary rate of 3.5%(official one lah….if not worse off), the actual return will be 2% only per annum.  So some people are willing to continue letting their saving in this form (through monthly obligatory deduction that give a 2% real return) rather than taking an additional risk of putting into unit trust investment that have a past perfomance track record of 10% on average (or 6.5% real return). This is not taking into accoutn the compounding affects. It is find if you are happy with 2% actual return and confident that you will be able to ride your old age retirement by letting your saving in EPF alone.

So the association of risk and return in this case is that EPF contributors who are willing to invest in unit trust using their epf are willing to take an additional risk in getting a potential 5% additional return i.e. 10%.

Then we have the element of cost and time to take into consideration. The main things that differentiate between one strategy to another are involve the manner the cost and time blended in with the investment schemes.

For example, the longer time we have the lower cost that we will be exposed to. Why?

Simply because with time we can disburse our investment more cautiously and thus reduces the possibility of making mistakes. Of course we can’t avoid mistakes or avoid risk in totality but we can reduce the occurances and with time on our side and patience, the probability of our investment giving us the return that we want and possibly more will be of higher chance to be achieved.

On how these time and cost will give the edge in getting the potential desirable returns, well, it is a trade secret only for my clients.:)

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5. December 2011

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Market seems to rally last week…should I join in the party?

As can be seen throughout last week, Bursa went berzek (as usual).

Looking at the chart below you can see that during the upswing, the market actually was supported by either the foreign institutions that I believe is to make mostly quick money when retailers enter (off course at our expense) , or either by the large institutions who want to support the market cos of the impending election, to make last gasp of profit before closing end of the year account (window dressing) or due to averaging factors of their existing portfolio.(the highlighted portion)

Table below is taken from http://bursatradestatistics.blogspot.com/, supports the argument that last week’s market was supported by foreign institutions (not necessarily good news, hot money).

So to invest in stock market does involve a lot of analysis, higher risk, a lot of time to scan through the market to find the possible opportunities and definitely need a consistent and high interest. Furthermore, to invest you also need to know things like what’s happening in the domestic, regional and world market such as what’s contemporary happenings in European Countries that will affect tomorrow’s news and trend.

The easier and coolest way to have a better opportunity to consistently in making good return is through Unit Trust as you don’t necessarily need to know all these things as you transfer the burden to your agent like me :) , because I got the time.

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1. December 2011

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Health is Wealth BUT…. Part 2

 Following on the 1st part...

Stress is caused by many factors, however, according to many research the main reason (especially in a more developed country) is caused by MONEY (here, here, here etc).  Specifically, in Malaysia, money had also been pointed out as one of the major contributor to stress. Well, can we blaim us. Definitely NOT!

Among the things that make us more stressful is the escalating medical cost. It is estimated that global medical cost is increasing by 10%, while in Malaysia it is 15%! Just look at the cost to get your knee replaced or going through an angioplasty.

This is make worst when inflationary pressure build in due to citizens from other richer nation with higher living standards are accessible to our medical facilities. Do remember, eventhough the foreigners are accessible to private facilities but the snowballing effect will happen, for example, more doctors will want to practise privately and this WILL increase the cost of us having our medical care (that is all together another topic to be highlighted later). Don’t get me wrong, in the name of economy development, I am all OK with demand and supply but not at the expense of us.

As our medical bills continuously going up, it seems not much effort been done to check this rise. Find, they are talking about the National Health Services (NHS), however, this thing has been in the air for the past many many years. Even if this NHS comes to fruit, who going to pick the fruits? Based on the track record, it does not gives me the confidence that it will be carried out in its intended way.

Well, what are we suppose to do then? Don’t despair! Just invest (long term) in unit trust and you will get the best bet in ensuring a productive and stress-free life. In the long term (before we die), investment do gives good return as compare to shorter term investment. As long as we are breathing, it is never too late to invest a portion of our wealth, be it in EPF or cash, to sustain a “healthier and more prosperous” lifestye ahead.

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30. November 2011

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Health is Wealth BUT….Part 1

The only surety in life is DEATH!

We were born yesterday, live today and will die tommorrow.

However, the journey will take some decades and along the way we will be happy, sad, healthy and be sick.

Conventionally, when we talk about being healthy we are referring to physical well being. However, according to World Health Organisation (WHO) health is a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.

Various research have shown that stress has some affects on our physical well being. Even people with the best of physical healthy routine can succumb to bad result, remember the India’s SAP CEO. It is possible that among all things, mental health would be a very important equation in ensuring a healthy life. Off course, physical exercise would undoubtedly boost further our overall health condition.

Over the decades (and definitely over the centuries) the world’s population is getting older due to the advances made in medical and healthier lifestyle. That does not mean that stress and problems are lesser for the past decades, it is just that we are more sophisticated in handling these issues for example, there are more amneties available and the availability of medical/hospital facilities.

In Malaysia, our life expectancy have increase substantially over the last 4 decade. It is estimated on average we will live until the age of 70′s.

Now, with that long expected living age, the least we need to be worry is maintaining the lifestyle regardless of  high or low lifestyle.

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25. November 2011

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What the market has done to you lately?

For those who are active or semi-active in the market especially since early of this year probable would have gone through an emotional roller coaster ride of first being optimistic early of the year, then felt elated (joyously happy) and now definitely felling nervous.  This can be illustrated thru’ the emotional cycle of investing: -

The danger of these feelings prevalent in majority of sane human being, is fortunately normal. These emotions are especially present for those who have a short term investment horizon and did not plan their investment strategy upfront. Greed would compound this feeling. Without a “reasonable” discipline approach towards investment, we will feel the urge to be:-

  1. overconfidence when the market is moving upwards, thus dispensing almost all of our funds,
  2. attraction to greed when we see price is rising,
  3. acquire the herd instinct whether the market is gong upwards or downwards and
  4. fear that if we don’t go in or out now we might lose on the opportunity

Well, the basis on ensuring that we are capable and able to invest is when we have the discipline to do so.  There is a different between investment (longer term) versus speculation (short term). When the market fluctuates like now, our bias or skew feeling could probable win the day against the rationale thinking and that would be dangerous.

The solution is to invest (long term) and engage in the best possible strategy with the right frame of mind. This will ensure that the uncomfortable felling can be avoided.

The best way to describe the roller coaster emotional feeling is by watching the following video with the additional feeling of laughter.

PS: when I was a kid, this video is so cool but now……

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24. November 2011

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Does size matter?

Probably, it does.

From private unit trust point of view, the largest player in the market is Public Mutual and NOT closely followed by CIMB. You need to combined the other 7 players to be comparable to Public Mutual in term of size. That is a huge different!.

Being a very large player does give it many advantages.  Public Mutual has 22 Islamic Unit Trust funds and it is growing in terms of number of funds and sizes. Off course, CIMB is making their strides and eventhough it is still far from catching up with Public Mutual, it is giving Public Mutual a run for their money.

My wish is that CIMB and few others can hasten their growth so that they will not be a too dominant player in the market. Why I would like to see that eventhough  I am a Public Mutual Agent (Islamic Funds)? ….because I like too see a VERY healthy and competitive industry (which at the moment I rate it as only healthy and competitive).

….and why a VERY healthy industry is good for me and you (investors)?

…a very healthy competition will push these Unit Trust Management Companies to lower their fees cost structure and definitely it will make the potential return to investor extraordinarily more tempting. This will drive more and more new investors, who see investment as a shorter term affairs (up to 3 years, for example).

…and why would a very heathy and competitive industry be good to me?….because I am also an investor, so does my wife, brothers, sisters, friends and acquaintances, and it is logical to possibly make more money at a lower cost to you.

Lowering of the fees structure will give me and my clients the added tranquility of mind and soul when we retire.

One question?….after saying all that, why I am still an agent to unit trust and specifically to Public Mutual (Islamic Unit Trust)….well, it is simple…

Unit Trust still gives me the best possible return with a much lower risk exposure compared to many other investment platforms, and Public Mutual (Islamic) stand tall above the rest.

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23. November 2011

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The DEBT!

The data derived from 2010 and the interesting thing about it is that the developed countries are living on “borrowed time” as they depend on debt (granted, they can always print it), while, the BRIC are flourishing under low debt and high savings. And then in between these two group of giants, we got smaller giants like S Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Turkey etc. Then we got us, Malaysia.

How do we compete, oooooh…we got the ETP’s. That will save the day. or would it?

It must be remember that having high debt is not a very serious issue IF the country’s output can grow faster than the debt and its interest servicing. Just like a business person who borrows money. If the individual borrows to increase his factory’s plant capacity so that he can produce his product in a bigger amount which will increase his profit in a meaningful manner, then it is good. BUT if he borrows to buy expensive painting to be place in his office, then better for his employees to start to find another job.

Overall, the selected Asean countries debt shown above is a bit worrying except for Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. Why, because they have the means to produce the necessary output based on the last few years. However, for Malaysia and Philippines, it doesn’t look good. Our debt is increasing too fast as oppose to the GDP output.

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22. November 2011

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Crisis illustrated…

There are many factors that determine the financial health and progress of a country/world, and obviously GDP being the most important and common indicator used. There are many sites that explain what that indicator is. What I would like to do is to just show graphically the sources of the world gdp and I believe it can easily compartmentalise our thoughts on why the happenings in other countries affects us greatly.

Total Gross Domestic Product of the world is around USD 63 trillion and World’s total import stands at USD 12.6 trillion

One possible simplistic way of looking into how influential an incident/occurance to the world economy, is by knowing whats happening in USA, Eurozone countries, Japan and off course BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India and China. They contributed 69% of the world’s GDP. These countries also imported 53% of the world products. Malaysia and other countries in the world need to import and export our goods and services and if the countries/region mentioned above can’t increase their purchase from us or export cheaper to us, then how do we grow?

So always remember, if these countries sneezes (one of them), countries like Malaysia will get ashmatic.

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